Let's be politically incorrect and assess why BJP talks beyond account opening in Kerala!

In this southernmost state of Kerala every election so far had been just a ritual for the biggest national party BJP. Even during the Modi-wave which swept across the nation in 2014 its vote share in Kerala touched a mere 10% - its historical best till date! In Vajpayee’s time in 1998 and in 2011 assembly elections it had earned just six percent votes only. Every time the attempt was for a mere account opening. And until now that dream remains much intact without disturbed by being converted into a reality.

But this time when the Kerala votes on 16^th May it is altogether a different BJP whose aim is much beyond opening an account. It is a resurgent BJP under the leadership of a new president Kummanam Rajasekharan from the Parivar fold who is very popular among the masses for the leading role he played in a much discussed successful Aranmula agitation. He was also famous for his successful Nilakkal movement in Sabarimala decades back. BJPs confidence stems from the fact that this time it is not fighting a lone battle. It is a rejuvenated NDA with SNDP’s BDJS and Kerala Adivasi Maha Sabha’s JRS as allies with BJP. With NDA looking a viable third alternative in Kerala it has already turned a minimum of 30 to 40 constituencies into a serious 3 cornered battle with a  clear winning chance in 5 to 8 seats which has already set the political mercury soaring unusually high this time in Kerala.

      

When we consider the biggest 13 states of the nation which contribute more than 20 parliament members, Kerala is the only aberration where the biggest national party BJP is not able to produce even a single MP or MLA!

If we deep dive into the electoral waters of Kerala we can see that there are many factors to which this peculiar phenomenon can be attributed. Most striking one could be the communally biased voting pattern of the two major minority communities.

Even though Kerala boasts of the highest literacy rate in the country and high secular credentials in social life, when it comes to electoral politics it is one of the most communally polarized states in India. A recent survey conducted by one of the most prominent Malayalam news channel Asianet News (part#1, part#2) revealed that almost 70 % of Christians vote for Congress led United Democratic Front(UDF). Almost 0% Muslims vote for BJP while their vote is almost vertically split between CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front(LDF) and UDF. 

Even there are two religion based parties in Kerala polity which are the 2^nd and 3^rd biggest parties in Kerala’s current ruling dispensation UDF. One is a ‘literally-all-Muslim-party’ called Indian Union Muslim League(IMUL or shortly called ‘League’) with 20 MLAs and the other one is a ‘broadly-all-Christian-party’ called Kerala Congress with 9 MLAs. When the two minorities constitute a 45 % of total population put together and when their voting pattern is what suggested by this survey, you don’t need more reasons for why Kerala remains a hard nut for BJP to crack.

The other side of this story is that the majority community, Hindus who are still a 55% of the total population is electorally too scattered to be a vote bank. Even though, the backward communities among Hindus who constitute a 35+% of the total population of the state including Ezhavas, SC/STs are traditionally believed to be the back-bone of the LDF. This is where BJP’s new social engineering going to be a game changer this time in Kerala politics.

The last year December witnessed the birth of a new political party in political horizon of Kerala. The new party BDJS (Bharath Dharma Jana Sena) was announced in much fanfare in a huge public rally held in the capital city Trivandrum followed by a successful month-long Kerala yatra. The biggest caste outfit of Kerala, SNDP (Sree Narayana Dharama Paripalanasabha) who represents Ezhava community is the one who is at the helm of affairs in this new party with all other Hindu community organizations forming a part of it. It was literally justifying its slogan of ‘Namboothiri muthal Nayadi vare’ which means in Malayalam ‘from the upper most cast to the lower most caste’ indicating the pledge for unity among the Hindus cutting across caste barrier. It turns out to be indeed an umbrella party which united almost all castes politically. It created much uproar in the political sphere of Kerala with an all out attack on the SNDP general secretary Vellappilly Nateshan from all the corners because Modi and Amit Shah was behind this move!  

     

It was the first step of a deliberate attempt by BJP think-tanks in creating a pro-BJP Hindu vote-bank which they knew is their only bet to penetrate into the two polar electoral politics of Kerala which was dictated by the two strong minority vote-banks. This so called social engineering of BJP crossed another mile-stone when it successfully persuaded the only tribal organization of Kerala, Aadivasi Maha Sabha to float its own political party and join the NDA in the upcoming state assembly elections. The firebrand tribal leader CK Janu, whose name is synonym with the tribal politics of the nation for her struggle during Muthanga agitations, is the leader of this tribal party.

With a prominent Dalit organization KPMS(Kerala Pulaya Maha Sabh) and the only tribal party of the state JRS (Janathipathya Rashtreeya Sabha) joining hands with BJP, it has successfully neutralized one of the major accusation against it that BJP is anti-Dalit and anti-Tribal.

Even though the new NDA was not formally announced during the last local body elections in the state, the tacit understanding was there between SNDP and BJP and the result was an indication of what is expected by them in the upcoming assembly polls.

The party doubled the total number of seats in the last year's local body polls as compared to its performance in 2010 polls. It won about 1,100 of the 21,871 seats across the three-tier local body structure in the state. The party's vote share touched 14 per cent. During the civic body elections, the BJP had captured the Palakkad municipality and did extremely well in the Thiruvananthapuram and Kasargod civic bodies. The BJP had 79 seats in the municipalities in 2010 - and the tally has now gone up to 236. In 2010, the party had 450 seats in village panchayats - and the figure has now increased to 933. Moreover, the saffron party now controls 21 divisions in block panchayats and three in district panchayats.

When the election date closes in both the LDF and UDF are fiercely attacking BJP is a clear indication that they have realized the threat BJP is posing to them this time. The much ridiculed alliance between Congress and Left in Bengal is also hurting them deep in Kerala as BJP is rightly highlighting this double standard in all possible platforms during their campaigns. Now there emerged a new competition between the Left and UDF in who is attacking BJP more in order to attract the anti-BJP minority votes.This is also turning to be advantageous for BJP as the net result of both fronts attacking a BJP which has not even a single MLA or MP in it kitty shows to the people that BJP led NDA is a worthy enough third option for them.

Amit Shah is coordinating the campaigning by personally camping here for the last 15 days till poll date and all central BJP heavy weights including PM Modi are addressing multiple rallies are clear indications of how seriously BJP has taken this time’s Kerala election for whose results the entire nation is eagerly awaiting for on May 19th.